Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Post Sandy Frankenstorm Thoughts

Fact No. 1.

"Frankenstorm" Sandy has nearly finished wreaking havoc, death and destruction on the east coast of our nation.  Over 50 have been reported dead, millions without electricity and thousands left homeless and struggling.

The two national campaigns for President have had their activities curtailed in those areas with the Romney campaign turning a few events into relief events, asking for attendees to donate to victims, bring bottled water and other necessities. The President suddenly is staying close to home and working the phones to various governors of affected States, something he probably should have done when our embassies came under attack on September 11 this year. Both should be commended for their actions.

Let's pause for a moment and allow reality to intrude on our political thoughts and pray for the victims. They need all the help they can possibly receive and relief agencies of the Federal and State Governments along with private relief agencies will have their resources stretched to the breaking point. Here is hoping that everything works out, as best as possible under these horrible circumstances.

Fact No. 2.

On various blog sites some commentators and self-proclaimed experts are proclaiming that Mitt Romney could actually win the popular vote or finish very close in the state of Illinois this election. These articles are persistent.

The Republican Party of Illinois polled likely voters last night and has released the poll results. Those Republican congressional candidates running in collar counties and downstate should be heartened by these numbers. Quite frankly, the poll results should not come as a shock to those of us Republicans who day in and day out promote the party in Illinois under often trying circumstances.

Those gerrymandered districts snaking out of Chicago and Cook County were drawn up by shameless Democrats for a reason.

From the Illinois Republican Party:

There's been a surprising amount of conjecture coming our way lately about the possibility of Mitt Romney inching closer to Barack Obama in Illinois. We've not paid much attention to that conjecture until it started to be uttered in some national circles and a handful of reporters we respect called to ask if there was anything to it.

There isn't.

For those of you uninitiated in the Illinois political scene - outside of following the hijinks of our politicians in Popular Prison Monthly - Chicago and Suburban Cook County each account for about 20% of the vote in the Land of Lincoln. No matter how well Romney does in the five suburban "collar counties" or downstate (the rest of Illinois outside of Chicago, Suburban Cook and the Collars), the huge hunk of burning love that his home state provides the president simply cannot be toppled. Some of our projections include turnout scenarios that put Romney as close as 10 points from the lead, but there is no way that Chicagoland is going to abandon it's Favorite Son.

We polled 1,198 Illinois likely voters last night. Following are the weighted head-to-head results and a regional breakdown:

Poll type: Automated. Date: October 30, 2012. Participants: 1,198 Likely voters. Margin of Error: 2.95%.

Chicago: 82% (Obama), 16% (Romney).
Sub. Cook: 66% (Obama), 31% (Romney).
Collar Counties: 44% (Obama), 55% (Romney).
Downstate: 45% (Obama), 51% (Romney).

All Voters: 57% (Obama), 41% (Romney).

Fact No. 3.

Get out the vote for your Republican candidates!  Multiple local polls in local races do not show much in the way of Obama coat tails. That should be evident by the Democratic Congressional Ads which not so curiously fail to bring up Obama all that much!

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